New findings in Bayesian tragedy

Leaked details from the criminal investigation into the sinking of the 56-metre Perini Navi sailing superyacht Bayesian suggest that Italian prosecutors are narrowing their focus on crew responses and technical variables.

The inspection is being led by the chief prosecutor of Termini Imerese, Angelo Vittorio Cavallo. According to Italian news outlets, the technical and investigative team is evaluating whether the crew underestimated the rapidly worsening weather conditions and whether the measures taken to weather the storm were adequate. 

The Bayesian went down in the early hours of 19 August 2024 near Porticello, close to Palermo, while at anchor. The tragedy claimed seven lives, including British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch, his daughter Hannah, ship’s cook Recaldo Thomas, Morgan Stanley International chair Jonathan Bloomer and his wife Judy, and attorney Chris Morvillo and his wife Neda.

The yacht’s captain, James Cutfield, along with crew members Tim Eaton and Matthew Griffith, are under investigation.

Ongoing investigation

Initial reports from the Adnkronos news agency indicate that the investigation is zeroing in on the operational state of the Bayesian’s lifting keel, which was reportedly kept fully raised at the time of the incident.

For a large-scale sailing vessel with a high windage profile – the Bayesian featured a record-breaking 75-metre aluminum mast – keel configuration could play a significant factor. For the Bayseain, lowering the retractable keel would increase the vessel’s draft from approximately 4 metres to nearly 10 metres, lowering the centre of gravity and potentially aiding the yacht’s righting moment.

The full report is not due for several weeks and the prosecutors office has not released any official statements on the results of the ongoing investigation.

In May 2026, it was reported that the investigation into the loss of the sailing superyacht Bayesian off Sicily in August 2024 had indicated that weather alone was unlikely to have caused the sinking.

The Termini Imerese prosecutor’s office has until February 2027 to complete the preliminary investigation and assess any liability in the tragedy.

The MAIB’s interim report, published in 2025, pointed to strong and rapidly increasing winds as a key factor in the incident. 

The investigative panel

The inquiry is being led by the chief prosecutor of Termini Imerese, Angelo Vittorio Cavallo, who assumed the role in early 2026. Cavallo is supported by a specialised technical consultancy team including:

Alessandro Biriaco, independent engineer

Antonio Scamardella, professor of Naval Architecture and Marine Structures at the University of Naples Parthenope

Alberto Marinò, professor of Naval Construction and Ship Systems at the University of Trieste